Trump v Trudeau

[happyrat1]

 

[happyrat1]

 

[rphillipchuk]

I am in Toronto, and these days I work exclusively with Americans. I'll discuss what I *think* and what I *know* in the interest of critical thought. I have worked with American corporations, European corps, and Canada corps through the years.

I *know* Americans are amazing people - generous, thoughtful, and caring. I love working with them. I *know* they are generally not well-educated or worldly. Unlike other cultures there's a tendency towards hero-worship for leadership, and they respond to rhetoric over facts. So when Trump says, "we will make them pay", I *think* Americans love it, without understanding that it isn't Canadians that pay more, it's Americans. I don't *think* most Americans understand that they pay the tariff, not us. Of course there's other economic repercussions to Canada.

I *know* that Trump tells half-truths either on purpose or without caring, to further his own interests. He also intentionally distracts competitors with bullying tactics to get what he wants in a negotiation. He has told us this in his books about what a fantastic businessman he is. I *think* this tariff dispute has an endgame that we don't know about yet.

I *know* you shouldn't react to everything he says, because most of it is not factual or relevant.

I *know* the higher prices that inevitably come with this approach to isolationism, will benefit the wealthy and not the middle class or those in poverty. Trump says what those groups want to hear, and since Americans are lacking in critical thought skills, they follow the hero-worship culture the whole time they're being misinformed and misled. Americans are ignorant, by the definition of that word.

But, I say to Americans: you elected another self-serving white guy... I *think* everyone else in world knows it's a bad idea. And contrary to what you've been told, we're haven't been anti-American. Borderline fascism.

Trudeau: I *know* he did positive things for the Canadian economy in his 10 years. I *think* he made many stupid decisions that he should have reversed. I don't agree with imposing retaliatory tariffs, I *think* it's part of what Trump wants as part of his unknown endgame. But that endgame is self-serving, I don't *think* it's not going to benefit Americans in general.

Well Said !!!!!!!!

 

[happyrat1]

There's a LOT of lead in America's drinking water. Just sayin'.

 

[Rayblewit]

All the firearms discharges in the lakes.

 

[happyrat1]

 

[happyrat1]

 

[happyrat1]

 

[Rayblewit]

NATO is obliged to defend us if America attacks, right? Just checking

No worries!
Canada will soon be a USA's 52nd state.
State 49 = Alaska
50 = Hawaii
51 = Mexico
52 = Canada
53 = Gaza
54 = ?

 

[happyrat1]

I'm taking bets.

50% odds there's a civil war by xmas this year.

50% odds WWIII breaks out and those Chinese warships steam. into Sydney Harbour Ray...

100% odds the religious nuts have finally initiated the end of the bloody world.

99% odds Elon and Bezos will hide out in their island fortresses.

What will you do when your last words are "Mind that drone. What Drone? POW!!!"

 

[happyrat1]

Deepseek is my bookie


New chat

What are the numerical odds of a civil war in the usa in the next year?



Predicting the numerical odds of a civil war in the USA within the next year is highly speculative and depends on a wide range of factors, including political, social, economic, and cultural dynamics. As of now, there is no consensus among experts or predictive models that can provide a precise numerical probability for such an event.
However, several indicators and trends can be considered when assessing the risk of significant civil unrest or conflict:

1. Political Polarization: The USA has experienced increasing political polarization in recent years, which can contribute to societal tensions. However, polarization alone does not necessarily lead to civil war.
2. Social Unrest: Events such as protests, riots, or widespread dissatisfaction with government policies can escalate tensions. While these are concerning, they do not automatically indicate an impending civil war.
3. Economic Conditions: Economic instability, inequality, or a severe recession could exacerbate social tensions. However, the US economy has shown resilience in the face of challenges, and current economic conditions do not suggest an imminent collapse.
4. Historical Context: The USA has a history of resolving internal conflicts through legal and political processes, even during periods of intense division (e.g., the Civil Rights Movement, the Vietnam War era). This historical precedent suggests a strong institutional capacity to manage crises.
5. Expert Opinions: Most experts and scholars do not believe a civil war is likely in the near term. While concerns about political instability and societal divisions are valid, the likelihood of a full-scale civil war remains low.

In summary, while there are legitimate concerns about societal divisions and political instability in the USA, the probability of a civil war in the next year is generally considered to be very low by most experts. Quantifying this risk with a specific numerical odds is not feasible due to the complexity and unpredictability of such events.





avoiding the number to the best of your knowledge what are the odds



Avoiding a specific numerical estimate, the odds of a civil war in the USA in the next year are generally considered very low by experts and analysts. While the country faces significant political polarization, social divisions, and occasional unrest, the structural, institutional, and historical factors that would make a civil war likely are not currently present. Here’s a breakdown of why the odds are considered low:

1. Strong Institutions: The U.S. has robust legal, political, and military institutions that are designed to manage and mitigate internal conflicts. These institutions have historically helped prevent large-scale violent upheaval.
2. Lack of Geographic or Ideological Divides: Unlike the pre-Civil War era, there are no clear geographic or ideological lines that would split the country into two or more cohesive factions capable of sustained armed conflict.
3. Public Sentiment: While there is significant political and social tension, the vast majority of Americans do not support or desire violent conflict. Most people favor resolving disputes through democratic processes.
4. Economic Stability: Despite challenges, the U.S. economy remains relatively stable. Severe economic collapse or widespread deprivation—often a driver of civil conflict—is not currently a significant risk.
5. Historical Precedent: The U.S. has experienced periods of intense division (e.g., the 1960s Civil Rights era, the Vietnam War protests) without descending into civil war. This suggests a capacity to manage crises without widespread violent conflict.

That said, the risk of localized unrest, political violence, or sporadic clashes is higher than in previous decades, particularly given the rise in extremism, misinformation, and polarization. However, these factors do not equate to the conditions necessary for a full-scale civil war.
In conclusion, while the U.S. faces serious challenges, the odds of a civil war in the next year are very low. The focus is more on addressing underlying issues like polarization, inequality, and political dysfunction to prevent further escalation.





what about if a coup has already been perpetrated?



If a coup has already been perpetrated in the United States, the dynamics and risks of civil conflict would change dramatically. A coup—defined as an illegal and overt seizure of power by a faction within the government, military, or other elite group—would represent a catastrophic breakdown of democratic norms and institutions. In such a scenario, the likelihood of widespread civil unrest, violent conflict, or even civil war would increase significantly. Here’s why:

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Factors That Could Escalate Conflict After a Coup​

1. Legitimacy Crisis:
   • A coup would immediately create a legitimacy crisis, as large portions of the population and political establishment would reject the authority of the usurpers. This could lead to mass protests, strikes, and resistance movements.
2. Political Polarization:
   • The U.S. is already deeply polarized. A coup would likely exacerbate these divisions, with one side supporting the coup and the other opposing it. This could lead to violent clashes between factions.
3. Military and Law Enforcement Splits:
   • If the military or law enforcement agencies were divided in their loyalty—some supporting the coup and others opposing it—the country could descend into factional violence. This is a key ingredient for civil war.
4. State Secession Movements:
   • In extreme cases, states or regions might refuse to recognize the authority of the coup leaders, potentially leading to secessionist movements or the formation of rival governments.
5. International Reactions:
   • A coup in the U.S. would likely trigger international condemnation, sanctions, or even intervention. This could further destabilize the country and create additional pressure for conflict.
6. Economic Collapse:
   • A coup would likely cause immediate economic turmoil, including market crashes, capital flight, and disruptions to trade and supply chains. Economic instability often fuels civil unrest and violence.

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Potential Outcomes​

The odds of civil war or widespread violent conflict would depend on how the coup unfolds and how different factions respond. Possible scenarios include:

• Failed Coup: If the coup is quickly reversed or defeated by loyalist forces, the risk of civil war would be lower, though the country would still face significant political and social fallout.
• Protracted Power Struggle: If the coup leads to a prolonged power struggle between rival factions, the risk of civil war would increase, especially if armed groups mobilize on either side.
• Successful Coup with Resistance: If the coup leaders consolidate power but face widespread resistance, the country could experience sustained insurgency or low-intensity civil war.

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Historical Context​

The U.S. has no modern history of successful coups, and its democratic institutions have historically proven resilient. However, the country has experienced significant political violence in the past (e.g., the Civil War, the assassination of political leaders, and the 2021 Capitol riot). A coup would represent an unprecedented escalation, making historical comparisons difficult.

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Conclusion​

If a coup has already been perpetrated, the odds of civil war or widespread violent conflict would rise significantly, depending on how the situation unfolds. The U.S. would face an existential crisis of governance, and the risk of fragmentation or prolonged violence would be real. However, the exact outcome would depend on the loyalty of key institutions (e.g., the military, law enforcement, and state governments), the level of public resistance, and the international response.
In such a scenario, the priority would be to restore democratic governance and prevent further escalation. The U.S. has historically avoided such outcomes, but a coup would test the country’s resilience in unprecedented ways.





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[Rayblewit]

Deepseek has been banned by our government departments.
Also the Australian government has recommended that we all delete the deekseek Ap. Suggesting it could compromise our privacy and abuse our personal info.

I think I agree with the hierarchy for once.

If Pearl Harbour got bombed and Darwin got bombed, yes you are right, Sydney harbour is not immune.

Our stupid government always backs USA.
We will be pissing in Trumps back pocket if he asks us. I am glad I have got only one or two decades left on earth. Heaven help our kids.

 

[Rayblewit]

Trump just added Australia on his hit list.
25% tariffs on our exports of aluminium and steel.
What an insult!

 

[Biggles]

We need another referendum about rejoining the EU.

Time to ostracise the USA

 

[Rayblewit]

UK could be the next victim

 

[happyrat1]

We need another referendum about rejoining the EU.

Time to ostracise the USA

UK and EU are like a bungee jump off a bridge.

One minute you're in the common market, the next decade you're back out.

Rinse and repeat.

Make up your bloody minds already

 

[happyrat1]

BTW, our Governor General still answers to the King.

Where's Chuckie in all of this?

 

[happyrat1]

 

[happyrat1]

Just read this on quora. Couldn't say it better myself.

quote>>>------------------------------------------------

Can Canadian people explain why they are not as pro-American as they used to be and are more Canadianized?
The entire world is less pro-American than it used to be, not just Canada. The popularity of the US and the US president plummeted under Trump. Favourable opinion of the US dropped to about 35% (about half of what it was), favourable opinion of the US president dropped to 16% (Obama was in the 90s I believe).
For four years the world sat on the sidelines watching, with horror and disbelief, the unmitigated corruption of US politics in the hands of that big, fat, ugly piece of S&%t otherwise known as . . . trump. The rest of the world, not just Canada, was delighted when Biden won in 2020. Sadly, his election did nothing to stop the continued corruption of US politics and the disgraceful behaviour of US Republicans. When we hear MTG could conceivably be the big fat orange glob’s 2024 running mate, or that piece of white trash, Boebert is being considered for speaker of the house, or the enormous sums of money the wealthy continue to donate to trump’s cause so he can be re-elected and they will benefit by trump’s implemention of tax laws that only favor the rich, the entire world shudders in disbelief.
The world, and Canada, could/can not believe the racist, anti-Semitic, misogynistic, gun-toting enthusiasm, corrupt, deceitful, violence promoting, position of politicians who believe in nothing but their continued political seat.
The world could not believe the corruption it witnessed within the US DOJ and the Supreme Court whose members were bought for financial gain. The world could not believe the atrocities trump and his henchmen got away with. Why has Matt Gaetz’s buddy been imprisoned for sexual crimes while he hasn’t been prosecuted for anything? Why do people continue to vote for dishonourable as$&*es like Ted Cruz or Graham or McConnell whose political positions seesaw back and forth depending on what the big ugly orange glob has had to say that day?
Why can trump continue to threaten judges and jury members with no real consequences? Why is it funny Pelosi’s husband was coshed with a hammer? Disgraceful. Why is the vitriol that spews from trump’s moth allowed to go on unchecked? - Disgraceful. Why has he been allowed to get away with ignoring the US constitution and what it stands for? He persecutes those who should enjoy freedom of religion. He tromps over people’s constitutional right to peaceful protest and freedom of speech.
Trump opened the eyes of the entire world, not just Canada, to the US’s far-reaching political corruption and didn’t like what it saw. Trump decimated the world’s positive perception of the US. The entire world is far less pro-American than perhaps at any other time in US history.
The entire world, not just Canada, has its fingers crossed that trump is not re-elected in 2024. God save the US if he is. Should he be reelected the world, not just Canada, will grow increasingly anti-American.

endquote>-------------------------------------

 

[Rayblewit]

The quora article was well written.
Very expressive language.
That reflects the anger and dismay we ALL will endure for 4 years.
I agree with the author 100 %
Ray